Jonathanomics: Because Ignorance is No Longer an Option!

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Dear Readers,

As I have been working towards my PhD, Jonathanomics has unfortunately taken a back seat. For my followers, I sincerely apologize. However, there will be some exciting changes starting Monday, May 27th!

I am quickly approaching my dissertation work, which will allow for more posts and even videos. My goal is to provide a minimum of one video each week and multiple posts.

As you can see the new “theme” of Jonathanomics is “Because Ignorance is No Longer an Option.” This is a new direction for the blog. Jonathanomics will seek not only to inform the reader of issues related to the political economy, but also equip readers with a basic understanding of how economic and political systems work.

We will start with an effort to provide readers with a basic understanding of economics and policy. Topics will include short explanations of supply and demand, economic events, and policy adaptation. This will hopefully create opportunities for civil discussion and provide you with some new knowledge. This blog is intended for anyone that wants to learn and discuss.

As we move into the realm of political institutions and disputes, guest bloggers will be invited to participate and offer their contrasting views. Maintaining a civil discord will be of the utmost importance.

One of the most important things I have learned in my studies are the differences between the statements, “I hear you”, “I understand you” and “I agree with you” (Credit: Dr. Holley Ulbrich). You do not have to agree with everyone’s ideas, but you should seek to gain a better understanding of why individuals hold certain beliefs.

Many of my colleagues and I hold vastly different political, social and religious beliefs. However, I have heard what they have to say, I understand why they believe what they believe, but I do not always agree with them–yet many of them are good friends. This builds perspective and promotes intelligent discussion, which is in incredible shortage in society.

With this in mind,  I hope I can provide you with some broadening perspectives and learn more about your views. So until May 27th, I wish you nothing but the best and I look forward to our interactions! And remember, ignorance is no longer an option!

J sig

Dabo Swinney, A genuine good guy!

dabo visit

Two days before national signing day–the busiest time of year for college football coaches–Dabo Swinney stopped what he was doing to conduct an in-home visit. But not the type of in-home visit monitored by the NCAA or some recruiting website. This visit wasn’t noted in the local sports page. In fact it was barely noticed at all for those outside of one particular family.

The words below are from Ray Cartee, whose mom is battling cancer:

“WHAT IS THE VALUE OF A MAN’S WORTH???? Yesterday I had the unbelievable pleasure of finding out the value of one man’s worth. To quote a commercial . . . he is ‘priceless.’ Most of you know that, for over a year now, my mom has been battling stage 4 cancer of the liver and lungs. The weekly chemo sessions have taken their toil to the point that every day is now a struggle. Mom continues to battle courageously, but recently I felt she really needed some inspiration. To that end, I wrote the head coach of the Clemson Tigers, Dabo Swinney, a letter detailing Mom’s battle and my desire to provide her with that inspiration. For those of you who know my family, we bleed orange (no, not Tennessee orange). Clemson orange. Mom loves Dabo Swinney and everything he stands for. Now I know why. To make a long story as short as possible, yesterday, Don Munson, Director of Media Relations at Clemson University, and Dabo Swinney, visited my parent’s home in Easley, South Carolina. I want to mention that this was 2 days before National Signing Day, an extremely important day for a Division I College Football Head Coach. This meeting was not about publicity, as the only ones taking pictures were my family. This meeting was not about a head coach making a name for himself in a community . . . he’s already done that. This meeting was about a man who truly cares about his ‘family.’ This was about a man whose only goal was to lift up a woman who was struggling and provide her with the inspiration to continue the fight. Dabo embraced my Mom, held her hand for 1 and ½ hours (even though we were told he would only have 30 minutes), and prayed over her for God to give her the strength to continue the fight. He shared intimate stories with us, and we with him. I could go on for quite a while about Dabo’s visit, but will simply say, it was a wonderful memory that my Mom and my family will cherish always. We will never be able to thank Dabo (& Don) enough for what we believe was a very timely visit with my Mom. For all of you Tiger fans out there, I want you to know . . . we have a great man leading this team. His inspiration and motivation for my Mom were ‘priceless.’”

Coach Swinney, Thank you for being whats “right” in college football today! You are a wonderful ambassador for Clemson University!

Brain Drain in Rural South Carolina

My colleague at the Strom Thurmond Institute, Rob Carey, PhD, provided me the following fascinating maps as a follow-up to yesterday’s essay on path dependency and development in South Carolina. This type of mapping is attributed to Richard Florida’s 2006 article appearing in the Atlantic.  The maps below are a replication of that work and show the distribution of individuals by county with bachelor’s degrees or higher relative to the national average in 1970 and 2000.

Notice in the first map from 1970 how dispersed the residents with bachelor’s degrees

or higher are throughout the state (the darker the color, the more educated the population). 

1970

2000

Notice how the darker colors have concentrated around more populated areas like Charleston (and the lower coast), Columbia, and Greenville. This indicates that more educated South Carolinians are gravitating to those areas and leaving rural areas with less college degreed residents. Two conclusions can be drawn from these maps.

1.  Rural areas are not retaining their native residents that attend college. (I’m guilty of that crime myself!)

2. Rural areas face an uphill battle to attract new industry in the information age with most of their educated residents leaving.

So is all hope lost? Not necessarily, but rural communities need to concentrate on development strategies that include emphasis on training and retaining local residents.

Path Dependence and Community Development in South Carolina

Why do some South Carolina communities experience expansive growth and others very little development? This is not a simple problem that can be fully explored in a single essay. However, this essay will attempt to identify some contributing factors of why smaller communities remain somewhat stagnant and other more populated communities grow rapidly. Communities experience a historical evolution that leads to their current state. Some of this evolution is observable from a historical perspective and by conducting an inventory of community assets. Other contributing factors are seen only from within the community itself. The internal forces guiding a community’s development relate to the traditions, attitudes, and available capital being utilized to move an area from a just a collection of individuals to a living and thriving community.

Individuals make decisions under unique circumstances and based upon their own past experience and tradition. This process is known as path dependency. Path dependence may include a worker that chooses to enter the same profession as their parent because it is what is most familiar or comfortable. This informal tradition may extend to many aspects of an individuals life including educational attainment, family size, and habitual behavior. Unfortunately, some decisions are a part of negative path dependence that fails to adapt to changes in the external environment including job migration and educational expectations.  For example, this problem can arise if a worker wishes to pursue a career in a dying industry (i.e., textile manufacturing), or wants to drop out of high school to take a job. These types of decisions are no longer a feasible alternative to receiving additional education. Yet some continue to make those choices, especially in more rural areas.

It is rational to assume that most individuals seek to maximize their self-interest and position themselves in the most advantageous position possible. But decisions are made with limited information and with bounded rationality. A person with very little education in a rural area has fewer resources (i.e., Internet access, reliable mentors, etc.) to make fully informed and rational decisions. Individual decisions within a community aggregate and contribute to the path dependency of the entire community. Examining educational attainment, literacy, and unemployment among communities with different levels of community development can provide some insights into these path dependencies.

There is evidence of a correlation between literacy and economic success among counties in South Carolina. In the most recent data, only 13 of the state’s 46 counties, or 28-percent, had literacy rates better than the state average (N.C.E.S., 2011). Thirty-one counties, or 67-percent, had rates of illiteracy higher than the state average. Of these 31 counties, 26 had populations below 50,000 residents. Therefore, there is an unbalanced presence of illiterate South Carolinians in more rural areas that have fewer resources to break the path dependent cycle. None of the top ten most populated counties in South Carolina had illiteracy rates that were higher than the state average. These more populated areas also have higher earning rates and more economic development success than there less literate rural neighbors.

Comparing a heavily populated county like Greenville and a rural county like Allendale provides a glimpse into significant educational and economic disparity between communities that are only 180 miles apart. Greenville County’s illiteracy rate in 2003 was 12-percent, which was among the lowest in the state. Allendale County had an illiteracy rate more than two times greater at 29-percent. While significantly less populated, Allendale County currently has the states second worst unemployment rate of 16.9-percent, which is more than double that of Greenville County at 7.6-percent. It should be noted that none of the top 10 most populated counties are among the thirty highest unemployment rates in South Carolina (E.A.S.C, 2012).

The more heavily populated areas of South Carolina continue to develop and improve both job and educational opportunities, but there are some communities that are not progressing as quickly. However, there are some core community development approaches to help overcome disparity and achieve sustainable development. The three basic approaches are technical assistance, self-help, and conflict (Robinson and Green, 2011). Historically, both rural and urban areas have relied on technical assistance from outside development experts. More urban areas generally combine the expert-led approach with the conflict. This is because more decisions are made in urban areas through compromise and satisficing among groups across a wider demographic. However, rural areas are more dependent on self-help initiatives in combination with expert-led development (Robinson and Green, p. 19). This approach can be good and bad. If there are competent leaders within a community dedicated to creating economic vitality, environmental stewardship, and social equity across various demographics, then sustainable community and economic development is feasible (Rainey, et al, 2004, p. 160). However, if a community does not have residents that are willing to participate in the process, the community is less likely to succeed.

There are three forms of capital necessary in order to execute a sustainable community development strategy. These include financial capital, human capital, and social capital. In order to obtain the necessary physical infrastructure and financing, public and private capital is vital. To increase local entrepreneurship and attract outside businesses, infrastructure like adequate roadways, telecommunications, waste disposal, and skilled labor is necessary (Rainey, et al, p. 162). This infrastructure does not occur overnight but rather is a result of investment in the community by public and private lenders, development corporations, and government agencies. History has shown that local banks have predominately serviced rural communities and their small businesses. More recently, deregulation has led to increased consolidation of local banks into larger organizations. The larger that the banks become, the less likely they are to provide smaller loans to local businesses (Rainey, et al, p. 163). Communities that find sources of private capital on a local level will provide local businesses a greater opportunity to obtain financial capital.

Investment in human capital, or the skills and abilities of a community’s local workforce, has been shown to result in increased economic growth (Shultze, 1961). Human knowledge and skill are the critical determinates of economic growth and community development (Rainey, et al, p.164). This is why communities without even the most basic education (i.e., high illiteracy rates) face a tremendous challenge in economic development. A commitment must be made to basic community development in areas like education, so that economic growth can occur. In order to attract new industry and encourage entrepreneurship, there must be a local labor pool of competent and skilled workers available.

This does not necessarily mean that each worker should aspire to be a graduate of a four-year college. Many jobs in South Carolina are available to workers with technical certificates and associates degrees from two-year colleges. In Greenville County, over 46-percent of the available jobs require only a technical certification and not a four-year degree (S.C. Department of Commerce, 2012). So perhaps the gap between the human capital in an area like Allendale County is not too deficient from the human capital of Greenville County. In 1993, Allendale County’s illiteracy rate was 43-percent and improved to 29-percent in 2003 (N.C.E.S., 2003). If this trend continues, high school dropout rates (32.4-percent in 2000) may be lowered as well, which would position more residents with the opportunity to obtain at least a technical certification and improve overall human capital.

Social capital theory explains community and economic development from a structural perspective rather than a market driven economic approach (Rainey, et al, p.165). Social capital includes path dependency factors like traditions, norms, and established networks. These structures can be the most difficult to change depending on how deeply embedded these norms and customs are in the community. However, assuming a community is willing to adapt, there are twenty clues to survival for community and economic development listed below (Holladay, 1992).

1. Evidence of community pride

2. Emphasis on quality in business and community life

3 Willingness to invest in the future

4. Participatory approach to development

5. Cooperative community spirit

6. Realistic appraisal of future opportunities

7. Awareness of competitive positioning

8. Knowledge of the physical environment

9. Active economic development programs

10. Deliberate transition of power to a younger generation of leaders

11. Acceptance of women in leadership

12. Strong belief in education

13.  Problem-solving approach to providing health care

14.  Strong multi-generational family orientation

15.  Strong presence of traditional institutions that are integral to community life

16.  Attention to sound and well-maintained infrastructure

17.  Careful use of fiscal resources

18.  Sophisticated use of info resources

19.  Willingness to seek help from the outside

20.  Conviction that, in the long run, you have to do it yourself

Each of these survival clues contributes to the amount of social capital available in developing communities. In the long term, as economic growth occurs, continued development requires increased political capital among rural communities. This will ensure the community’s voice is heard and that there will be a continued presence during policymaking. Progress is being made but there are still areas in rural South Carolina where citizens do not possess even the most basic reading and communication skills to be competitive. Greater emphasis is needed in the areas listed above to improve the available human, financial, and social capital and spur greater community and economic development.

 


References

Employers Association of South Carolina (2012). Monthly Unemployment Rates Ranked By

County. Web.

Holladay, J. Mac. (1992). Economic and Community Development: A Southern Exposure.

Dayton, Ohio: Kettering Foundation.

National Center for Education Statistics. (2003). State and County Literacy Estimates. Web.

Rainey, Daniel V., Kenneth L. Robinson, Ivye Allen, and Ralph D. Christy. (2003). Essential

Forms of Capital for Achieving Sustainable Community Development. In Achieving Sustainable Communities in a Global Economy, edited by Ralph D. Christy. Hackensack, NJ: World Scientific Publishing Company.

Robinson, Jerry W, Jr. and Gary Paul Green. (2011). Introduction to Community Development.

Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.

Schultz, Theodore W. (1961). Investment in Human Capital. The American Economic Review,

51:1-17.

South Carolina Department of Commerce. (2012). SC Works Online Services – Quick Search.

Web.

When life gives you lemons, make innovative lemonade!

Asymmetric Information: Life gives you lemons–make innovative lemonade!

 

In 2001, George A. Akerloff delivered his Nobel Prize Lecture on Behavioral Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Behavior. A focus of his lecture was asymmetric information. Akerloff had previous written The Market for “Lemons” (1970), which detailed the information problem related to used car sales. This problem existed because the previous owner (or seller) possessed much more knowledge about the vehicle than the prospective owner (or buyer). The information problem can lead to market failure, where the buyer unwittingly purchases a dysfunctional car. In likely one-time transactions, like a sale between private individuals, asymmetric information can be compounded because of the low likelihood of repeat transactions. This is known in game theory as a one-time game. If it were a repeat game there would be more consequences for the seller that withheld information about a potential clunker. Established dealers do partake in some repeat business and have reputations to protect. Therefore, some consideration of repeat games is given and more information is generally available (although the problem of asymmetric information persists with dealers as well…. WHAT IS A RUSTPROOFING FEE ANYWAY!?).

Several solutions have been provided to the information problem associated with used car sales. First, the government has created lemon laws that give some rights to the buyer to seek restitution for cars that the seller sold knowingly defective. But there are transactions costs to the lemonee associated with proving the seller was a lemoner. The market has provided solutions as well. Vehicle history reports provide a detailed record of the vehicles accident and limited repair history based upon a vehicle’s unique identification number (VIN). Also, innovation in communication and the Internet have given consumers a real time option to air grievances and read prior grievances about sellers as well as finding tips on overcoming the information problem when purchasing a car.

The timeline for the development of a process that reduces asymmetric information for a used car purchase is provided below: Akerloff wrote his article on lemons and asymmetric information in 1970, CARFAX began developing vehicle history reports in 1984, the Internet was fully commercialized in 1995, by the late 1990s CARFAX had integrated their system into an Internet database offering vehicle history reports for a fee. Currently, buyers are able to retrieve vehicle history reports from anywhere on mobile devices.  These innovations have reduced the information problem of lemons and made quite a pitcher of innovative lemonade.

As the consumer is given more innovative tools to deal with information problems, transactions costs are reduced. There is incentive for private companies to solve problems of informational asymmetry across a variety of issues. CARFAX has made millions by providing used car buyers with vehicle history reports for $30 each. This represents a potential savings of thousands of dollars for a buyer considering a lemon vehicle, which reduces transactions and opportunity costs and improves efficiency.  By reducing asymmetric information, CARFAX has become an expected norm in used car transactions. Consumers now expect a CARFAX report before completing a sale of a used car. Thus, innovation created a new norm in a market transaction.

Jonathanomics: Oil and Path Dependency

In 2010, the United States (US) consumed 19.1 million barrels of oil per day (MMbd), making it the world’s largest petroleum consumer. The US was also the world’s third largest producer of oil at 5.5 MMbd, and the largest importer of crude oil products at 11.8 MMbd. The consumption of petroleum products has continuously increased since 1949. Domestic production of petroleum over that same time period has seen notable decreases and net importation of petroleum-related goods have significantly increased as illustrated in the figure below.

As recently as 2008, the US relied on ten countries[1] that are considered unstable by the State Department’s Travel Warning List. This is important because the market for petroleum has shown to be very price sensitive to international conflicts. Conflict introduces a level of fragility[2]into the market. The recent escalation of conflicts in Syria and the resulting gasoline price increases provide evidence of this phenomenon. The reliance on unstable countries for increasing net imports of a dependent energy source without close substitutes, like  gasoline, leaves US consumers subject to the volatility created by exogenous conditions stemming from political instability.

You may access the complete paper HERE.


[1] Based on 2008 import totals. The 10 countries were Algeria, Chad, Colombia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Iraq, Mauritania, Pakistan, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, and Syria. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Company Level Imports Historical,” available at http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_level_imports/cli_historical.html.

[2] Fragility in this case is defined as a market product that is less stable and subject to price volatility. Nassim Taleb, author of Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan is working on a new book about antifragility, which touts the importance of more stable market products. An interesting podcast on the subject can be found at http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2012/01/taleb_on_antifr.html (“Taleb on Antifragility,” 2012).